National Championship Preview
Michigan vs Villanova (-6.5) O/U: 144.5
Here we go. Started with 351 teams, then cut down to 68 a few weeks ago, and now there are only 2 teams left to vie for the national title. Tonight in San Antonio, both of these two will try to etch their names in college basketball lore. For Villanova, they are trying to win their second title in three years while Michigan is trying to avenge their loss in 2013 to Louisville. It would be poetic justice for Michigan and John Beilein to pick up a national championship in the same year their loss to Louisville was vacated. Both of these schools have been some of the best programs in college basketball with Michigan making two national championships and two other elite 8 appearances since 2013 while Nova has had the best winning percentage out of any program the past three years.
How Villanova got here:
Throughout the tumultuous season and especially in March there has pretty much been one constant across the college basketball landscape: Villanova’s dominance. Outside of when Phil Booth was hurt and Villanova seemed mortal, they went 6-3 when he was not at full strength, Villanova has looked like the best team in the country. They did not win the Big East regular season title because of the aforementioned stretch, but they rolled through the Big East tourney winning every game by 10 or more points. In fact, the last game Villanova played in which they did not win by double digits was their 1 point victory at Seton Hall on February 28. Ridiculous. They are 5-0 ATS in the tourney and have not really been close in any of them. They started off by beating Radford and Bama by a combined 49 points in the first weekend thanks to lights out shooting and some of their best defense they have played all year. They picked up where they left off in the regionals when they beat West Virginia 90-78 thanks to 54% shooting from 3, and then overmatched Texas Tech with defense, winning again by 12 despite one of their worst shooting nights of the year. Then we all know what happened Saturday night in San Antonio. The Cats made light work of another Big 12 team as they took Kansas to the woodshed 95-79 and quite frankly it was not even that close. Villanova played nearly the chalkiest path as any team based off seed, facing an extremely talented Alabama team followed by the Big 12’s top 3 teams, but they have dispatched all of them relatively easily. Villanova can win in a variety of ways, and when their shots are falling, they are almost unbeatable.
How Michigan got here:
It may be time for Coach Tom Izzo to hand over the “Don’t bet against in March” label to John Beilein because for the second March in a row he has the Wolverines playing their best basketball of the season. For the second straight year, the Wolverines have gone on a run to win the Big 10 tourney and continued to go on impressive runs in the NCAA tourney with a sweet 16 run last year and an opportunity to play for a championship this year. Michigan has had an up and down year, they started off 6-4 in a down Big 10, but have been a remarkable 16-1 since January 29. It is a testament to their coaching and leadership that they were able to come together and get better as the year went on and continue to play their best ball down the stretch. However, their path to the title has been a littttttle more eventful than Villanova’s. Their NCAA tournament started with the least entertaining game of the tourney when they beat Montana 61-47. Don’t watch highlights on it, just trust me, it was awful. However, they followed that up with one of the most entertaining games of the first weekend when they squeaked past Houston 64-63 thanks to a Jordan Poole miracle 3 that may be the shot of the tournament. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMyXGZC_Bwc (probably guard the inbounder next time, Kelvin). It was sad to see Rob Gray get knocked out of the tournament like that, but it was at least it was Jordan Poole who hit the dagger. And speaking of Rob Gray, if that shot doesn’t fall, we are probably talking about Houston playing for a championship tonight. The second weekend, Michigan went to Hollywood and absolutely dominated Texas A&M with a Villanova-esque shooting performance as they put up 99 on the Aggies 13th ranked defense. However, they may have used all their shooting that game as they barely squeaked by Florida State 58-54 in a physical, slow battle. Michigan then struck midnight on Loyola’s Cinderella run, but it was not easy as they had to overcome a 7 point halftime deficit when they eventually pulled away and won the first national semifinal 69-57. Michigan benefitted from squads like UNC, Xavier, and Gonzaga losing early in their region as well as all hell breaking loose in the South region to get here, but hey they have beaten everyone in front of them and earned their spot here.
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March madness is crazy
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Matchup:
These are two of the best, most underrated coaches and a win here will cement a deserved spot for one of them as undeniably a top 5 coach in the game. For John Beilein, he has done just about everything you could want except win a national title. A title here, the first title for the Big 10 since 2000, would certainly earn him the respect he deserves. For Jay Wright, a second title in three years, in the one and done era with no one and dones, would absolutely make him one of the greats. GQ Jay not only looks great on the sidelines, but he is a damn good coach. The way he develops players along with the X’s and O’s, and the culture he has established at Nova make him so great. Most of the best coaches can do one or two of those things at an elite level, Wright does all three better than just about anyone. However, this game goes much deeper than the coaching battle. This is pitting the best offense in the country against one of the best defenses in the country. Belein’s Michigan teams are traditionally known for their offense, but this is his best defensive team and they are suffocating. Whichever team wins this battle will win the game. Particularly, the battle at the 3 point line. Villanova wants to let that shit fly while Michigan is one of the best teams in the country at running teams off the 3 point line. Villanova ranks 12th in offensive 3PA/FGA while Michigan ranks 5th in defensive 3PA/FGA. Michigan needs to not allow Villanova to get open looks from downtown. The other matchup I am excited for is how these athletic wings can matchup with each other. Divincenzo and Bridges for Nova vs Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Charles Matthews for Michigan. Michigan will need to switch a lot to prevent 3s, so they will need these two on top of their games especially against guys like Divincenzo and Bridges.
Why Villanova will win:
Jalen. Fucking. Brunson. There is a reason he is the player of the year. He is a matchup nightmare for anyone. Villanova likes to invert their offense and they are able to because of Brunson’s physicality and his vision. They surround Brunson with athletic wings and bigs who can shoot and allow him to post up on smaller players. Generally, teams need to double Brunson down low, like Kansas did which allows him to find guys like Spellman and Bridges who are generally able to create separation and get open on more traditional big men. It seems as if all five Villanova guys know where each other are, which will be huge in this game as they will need to move it quickly on this athletic Michigan defense to get open looks. Look for Spellman to make Mo Wagner chase him around all day like he did to Azubike and have another big game.
Why Michigan will win:
The last time Villanova played a team who was as athletic defensively as Michigan was Texas Tech in the elite 8. In this game Nova shot 4/24 from deep. Of course Texas Tech got dominated on the glass and could not finish inside, but Texas Tech does not have Mo Wagner and Charles Matthews. Wagner is one of the best defensive rebounders in the country while both of them are elite finishers inside. If Matthews his able to beat his guy (probably Bridges) off the dribble and draw doubles, Michigan will be able to score on Villanova. Zavier Simpson is also a strong, elite defender at point guard who will refuse to be bullied by Brunson down low and allow the wings to stay out on their guys. Simpson needs to play tough and physical, and if Michigan is going to win it is because he plays his ass off on the defensive end.
What will happen:
Jalen. Fucking. Brunson. Do I need to say it again? He will be able to play bully ball and make the Michigan defense collapse. Or they won’t collapse and Bridges and Spellman will still find ways to get open. Do not get me wrong Michigan is an elite defense, Nova is just that fucking good. I think Michigan will hang around for 30-35 minutes, but Villanova will overpower them in the end. The other thing that scares me about Michigan is they are gonna need all the points they can get and they are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country. I will lay the points with the Cats.
Pick: Villanova
ATS Pick: Villanova -6.5
O/U Pick: Over 144.5
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