EMERGENCY THURSDAY SWEET 16 PREVIEW

Hello friends and welcome….just kidding Nantz won’t be saying that for a few weeks.  Nope for the next two we got Nantz along side Grant Hill, whose Mom went to college and was roommates with Hilary Clinton and Raft.  And anyone who complains about the first weekend being boring, punch them square in the nose.  We are set up for one of the greatest second and third weekends in recent memory and oh yeah it just so happens to coincide with Opening weekend in the MLB, NCAA hockey tourney and one of the best golf tournaments of the year in the Dell Technologies Match play.  But that isn’t why you’re here, so let’s talk some hoops.

THURSDAY SLATE

Florida St vs Gonzaga (-7.5) O/U: 146.5

This game makes me sad.  Coming into the tournament, I wanted to see both of these teams in Minneapolis and it’s a damn shame they have to play this early, but as they say to be the best you have to beat the best.  Personally, I was of the belief that Florida St. and Texas Tech were the 9^th and 10^th best teams in the nation coming into the tourney behind the 1s and 2s, but now I think I may have been underselling them both.  This FSU team has some DUDES.  They throw length and athleticism at you that not many other teams in the nation can do.  They are a matchup nightmare for anyone they go up against, and the Zags haven’t seen these types of athletes since December.  *Stephen A. Smith voice* HOWEVA, this Zaga team is really fucking good.  Like historically great.  Prior to that St. Mary’s disaster in the WCC title (I still think they took a dive to get 2 in), they were the second most efficient offense since 02, only to the Wisco team that took down undefeated Kentucky.  So before you write off the Zags for the conference they play in, just remember they won every game in that conference by an average of damn near 30 points and they got some ballers.  2 lottery picks in Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke lead this team, only this Rui and Clarke don’t need Sacagawea to guide them.  Nope but they do have an experienced PG in Josh Perkins guiding them who sometimes gets careless with the ball, but this team will go how he does.  I am fully confident Rui and Clarke will be able to handle the big, athletic FSU front court, but will Perkins be able to handle the constant pressure FSU will throw at him?  If I was Florida State, I would throw a whole lot of Terrance Mann at him to fluster him and allow Koumadje (whose first name is literally Christ) and perhaps the most underrated player in the country in Mfiondu Kabengale deal with the Zags’ 2-headed monster in the frontcourt.  This game is a rematch of last year’s 75-60 FSU sweet 16 win, and I expect this one to be a lot more exciting than that.  As I have said, I have been high on both of these squads all year, but there is a reason I have the Zags going to the title game in my bracket.  I just think their superior talent and shot making ability wins out, and when in doubt I will always go with Mark Few over Leonard Hamilton…Zaga wins 72-68.

SU: Gonzaga

ATS: FSU +7.5

Under 146.5

Purdue vs Tennessee (-1.5) O/U: 146.5

Remember how much I said I love the last two teams?? These ones not so much.  Purdue has done nothing to impress me outside of Mackey Arena and Tennessee sometimes forgets defense exists.  Don’t get me wrong, they are good teams and both of them have bona fide Wooden Award candidates, I just won’t be sad to see one of their seasons end on Thursday night.  What will be interesting about this one is the contrasting styles.  Purdue will shoot 3s. A lot.  And they can stroke it, largely due to number 3, Carsen Edwards.  Legit, sometimes I forget this is Purdue and not Old Dominion’s new hit single, One Man Band.  Meanwhile, Tennessee loves to go inside with Admiral Schofield and Grant Williams.  Side note on Grant Williams, you truly cannot appreciate how unfuckingbelievable of a basketball player he is until you watch him play in person.  I was only watching him on the defensive side of the basketball and his movement and anticipation for what the offense will do next is next level.  That will be key this game as Purdue does a fantastic job freeing up shooters with screens and then peeling off to crash the glass.  Williams will be key in calling out screens for his teammates and closing out on shooters.  Same thing on offense, he is so good at finding space for himself and others.  He also has that straight up dog in him where he refuses to be beat.  Ultimately that may be the difference in this game.  I think Purdue will be able to get theirs from deep, granted not as much as they did against Villanova, but Tennessee will be able to match them in what I think will just be a layup line on offense.  Look who Purdue lost against in B1G play: Minnesota, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State.  What do all 4 of those teams have in common?  They have multiple fucking brutes who will bully you down low on O if you give them a chance.  Well less so with Mich, but they defend the 3 ball better than anyone else in the country soooo.  While I do have my reservations that Rick Barnes will inexplicably choke on the big stage again, I trust in Williams to will the Vols to victory like he did against Iowa, and the Vols to be singing Rocky Top all night long after pulling away in a great offensive game…Vols 81-71

SU: Tennessee

ATS: Vols -1.5

Over 146.5

Texas Tech vs Michigan (-2) O/U: 126

I want to see 12 rounds of this game.  Both teams are physical, tough, and will defend the shit out of you.  They will shake you down, take your lunch money, and then shove you in a locker.  If you have ever been in a rock fight, then you know what will shake out over 40 minutes here in Anaheim.  This is another game featuring two teams that I have loved all year, well me and Michigan’s relationship, like any healthy marriage has had some ups and downs (the 3 times I bet on them when they played Michigan State), but overall, I love these teams.  One of the main reasons is the coaches.  This is about as good a coaching matchup as you can ask for.  Chris Beard, the new kid on the block who put the nail in the coffin on Kansas’ reign of terror on the Big 12 by routing them in late February, and John Belein who has been a staple as one of the top coaches in the game for years now.  Beard replaced Keenan Evans and Zhaire Smith and got better.  That is in large part to the growing legend of Jarrett Culver. An absolute monster on both ends of the floor and I think if I got matched up against him I would just curl up in the fetal position and cry.  Look for Charles Matthews to be on him which will be fun as hell.  However, this ain’t your older brother’s Belein team.  Trey Burke isn’t walking through that door.  While they still usually have great inbound plays and run beautiful sets, they do not have a killer.  Zavier Simpson and Charles Matthews, for as good as they are, tend to struggle offensively.  The closest thing they have is Jordan Swaggy Poole, who is a monster but is somewhat neutralized by his ineptitude on the other side of the floor.  And on the Texas Tech side, no big deal just the most efficient defense in the country, ho hum.  If you have not watched this Texas tech team play, make sure you have a front row seat for this game.  They play so hard it will make you never turn on an NBA game again.  They just throw themselves at the ball handler and do not allow open shots.  Against a Michigan team where the ball tends to be sticky when things aren’t going their way, that could spell trouble.  We just watched Texas Tech hold Buffalo, an offense far superior to Michigan’s by this man’s estimation to 58 points (0.88 ppp).  Michigan NEEDS to be hitting contested shots, and they need to be hitting them early.  If they do not start shooting well then I think we may see a couple of their famous 3 minute droughts, only this Texas Tech team will not let them back in it.  This is also a Texas Tech team who has been playing much better offense than they were at the beginning of the last month.  If Michigan starts hot, we will have a dandy, but if not, I fear for the Wolverines’ health.  65-54 Texas Tech

SU: Texas Tech

ATS: Texas Tech +1.5

Under 126

Oregon vs Virginia (-8.5) O/U 119.5

The classic, hottest team in the country running into a top 1 team in the country (yea I said it wanna fight about it?).  An immovable force meets an unstoppable object.  And in this case that works.  Both of these teams want to play at a snail pace and defend and get offense from defense.  Virginia runs CTB (Coach Tony Bennett)’s patented pack line and Oregon runs a weird positionless morphing zone with their multitude of athletic bigs just rejecting dudes at the rim all day.  I am going to be honest, as a Virginia fan, this matchup scares me.  I know we can shoot over them, I just would not want to be anyone running into Oregon.  However, I want you to do the research for yourself.  Outside of the Elite 8 game in which UVA squandered a double digit lead in the 2^nd half, look how they have done against Cuse in the Tony era.  Go ahead check.  Stop reading and check.  The answer? Pretty fucking good.  They love playing against a zone.  And not all those teams had Ty Jerome to cut up the middle or the number 1 3P% in the country.  Or DeAndre Hunter, (the best NBA draft prospect in this class) to score from legitimately anywhere).  While Kenny Wooten scares the hell out of me from Virginia’s perspective, UVA does not need to get to the rack to score.  Plus speaking on that, I would not be surprised to see CTB roll out a Jerome/Guy/Hunter/Key/Diakite lineup often to try to make some of those bigs roam a little and get uncomfortable.  However, CTB does have two shortcomings as a man: His love of Kihei Clark and his refusal to play DeAndre Hunter when he has 2 fouls.  This Oregon team has won 10 in a row and looked damn good doing it.  What Dana Altman has done to turn that team around is nothing short of excellent, but they have not seen Virginia.  Another cool storyline is that neutral fans I think somehow will hate Payton Pritchard more than Kyle Guy which is always fun.  Anyway you know which way I am going with this, I don’t see Oregon getting to 50, Hoos defense is just too good, and Oregon is not a great jump shooting team, it is just that plain and fucking simple. UVA 66-47.

SU: UVA

ATS: UVA -8.5

Under 119.5

*Bonus pick* If you can get an Oregon 2H team total especially if they are sitting around 30 at halftime, take it.  This game has 2^nd half Tony (opponent under 20 points) written all over it.

Well there you have it, I gotta go play school for a little so be on the lookout for Friday’s preview later today or tomorrow

EMERGENCY NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW

National Championship Preview

Michigan vs Villanova (-6.5) O/U: 144.5

Here we go.  Started with 351 teams, then cut down to 68 a few weeks ago, and now there are only 2 teams left to vie for the national title.  Tonight in San Antonio, both of these two will try to etch their names in college basketball lore.  For Villanova, they are trying to win their second title in three years while Michigan is trying to avenge their loss in 2013 to Louisville.  It would be poetic justice for Michigan and John Beilein to pick up a national championship in the same year their loss to Louisville was vacated.  Both of these schools have been some of the best programs in college basketball with Michigan making two national championships and two other elite 8 appearances since 2013 while Nova has had the best winning percentage out of any program the past three years.

How Villanova got here:

Throughout the tumultuous season and especially in March there has pretty much been one constant across the college basketball landscape: Villanova’s dominance.  Outside of when Phil Booth was hurt and Villanova seemed mortal, they went 6-3 when he was not at full strength, Villanova has looked like the best team in the country.  They did not win the Big East regular season title because of the aforementioned stretch, but they rolled through the Big East tourney winning every game by 10 or more points.  In fact, the last game Villanova played in which they did not win by double digits was their 1 point victory at Seton Hall on February 28.  Ridiculous.  They are 5-0 ATS in the tourney and have not really been close in any of them.  They started off by beating Radford and Bama by a combined 49 points in the first weekend thanks to lights out shooting and some of their best defense they have played all year.  They picked up where they left off in the regionals when they beat West Virginia 90-78 thanks to 54% shooting from 3, and then overmatched Texas Tech with defense, winning again by 12 despite one of their worst shooting nights of the year.  Then we all know what happened Saturday night in San Antonio.  The Cats made light work of another Big 12 team as they took Kansas to the woodshed 95-79 and quite frankly it was not even that close.  Villanova played nearly the chalkiest path as any team based off seed, facing an extremely talented Alabama team followed by the Big 12’s top 3 teams, but they have dispatched all of them relatively easily.  Villanova can win in a variety of ways, and when their shots are falling, they are almost unbeatable.

How Michigan got here:

It may be time for Coach Tom Izzo to hand over the “Don’t bet against in March” label to John Beilein because for the second March in a row he has the Wolverines playing their best basketball of the season.  For the second straight year, the Wolverines have gone on a run to win the Big 10 tourney and continued to go on impressive runs in the NCAA tourney with a sweet 16 run last year and an opportunity to play for a championship this year.  Michigan has had an up and down year, they started off 6-4 in a down Big 10, but have been a remarkable 16-1 since January 29.  It is a testament to their coaching and leadership that they were able to come together and get better as the year went on and continue to play their best ball down the stretch.  However, their path to the title has been a littttttle more eventful than Villanova’s.  Their NCAA tournament started with the least entertaining game of the tourney when they beat Montana 61-47.  Don’t watch highlights on it, just trust me, it was awful.  However, they followed that up with one of the most entertaining games of the first weekend when they squeaked past Houston 64-63 thanks to a Jordan Poole miracle 3 that may be the shot of the tournament. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMyXGZC_Bwc (probably guard the inbounder next time, Kelvin).  It was sad to see Rob Gray get knocked out of the tournament like that, but it was at least it was Jordan Poole who hit the dagger.  And speaking of Rob Gray, if that shot doesn’t fall, we are probably talking about Houston playing for a championship tonight.  The second weekend, Michigan went to Hollywood and absolutely dominated Texas A&M with a Villanova-esque shooting performance as they put up 99 on the Aggies 13^th ranked defense.  However, they may have used all their shooting that game as they barely squeaked by Florida State 58-54 in a physical, slow battle.  Michigan then struck midnight on Loyola’s Cinderella run, but it was not easy as they had to overcome a 7 point halftime deficit when they eventually pulled away and won the first national semifinal 69-57.  Michigan benefitted from squads like UNC, Xavier, and Gonzaga losing early in their region as well as all hell breaking loose in the South region to get here, but hey they have beaten everyone in front of them and earned their spot here.

Michigan Jordan Poole Hits The Game Winner To Beat Houston www.youtube.com March madness is crazy

Matchup:

These are two of the best, most underrated coaches and a win here will cement a deserved spot for one of them as undeniably a top 5 coach in the game.  For John Beilein, he has done just about everything you could want except win a national title.  A title here, the first title for the Big 10 since 2000, would certainly earn him the respect he deserves.  For Jay Wright, a second title in three years, in the one and done era with no one and dones, would absolutely make him one of the greats.  GQ Jay not only looks great on the sidelines, but he is a damn good coach.  The way he develops players along with the X’s and O’s, and the culture he has established at Nova make him so great.  Most of the best coaches can do one or two of those things at an elite level, Wright does all three better than just about anyone.  However, this game goes much deeper than the coaching battle.  This is pitting the best offense in the country against one of the best defenses in the country.  Belein’s Michigan teams are traditionally known for their offense, but this is his best defensive team and they are suffocating.  Whichever team wins this battle will win the game.  Particularly, the battle at the 3 point line.  Villanova wants to let that shit fly while Michigan is one of the best teams in the country at running teams off the 3 point line.  Villanova ranks 12^th in offensive 3PA/FGA while Michigan ranks 5^th in defensive 3PA/FGA.  Michigan needs to not allow Villanova to get open looks from downtown.  The other matchup I am excited for is how these athletic wings can matchup with each other.  Divincenzo and Bridges for Nova vs Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Charles Matthews for Michigan.  Michigan will need to switch a lot to prevent 3s, so they will need these two on top of their games especially against guys like Divincenzo and Bridges.

Why Villanova will win:

Jalen. Fucking. Brunson.  There is a reason he is the player of the year.  He is a matchup nightmare for anyone.  Villanova likes to invert their offense and they are able to because of Brunson’s physicality and his vision.  They surround Brunson with athletic wings and bigs who can shoot and allow him to post up on smaller players.  Generally, teams need to double Brunson down low, like Kansas did which allows him to find guys like Spellman and Bridges who are generally able to create separation and get open on more traditional big men.  It seems as if all five Villanova guys know where each other are, which will be huge in this game as they will need to move it quickly on this athletic Michigan defense to get open looks.  Look for Spellman to make Mo Wagner chase him around all day like he did to Azubike and have another big game.

Why Michigan will win:

The last time Villanova played a team who was as athletic defensively as Michigan was Texas Tech in the elite 8.  In this game Nova shot 4/24 from deep.  Of course Texas Tech got dominated on the glass and could not finish inside, but Texas Tech does not have Mo Wagner and Charles Matthews.  Wagner is one of the best defensive rebounders in the country while both of them are elite finishers inside.  If Matthews his able to beat his guy (probably Bridges) off the dribble and draw doubles, Michigan will be able to score on Villanova.  Zavier Simpson is also a strong, elite defender at point guard who will refuse to be bullied by Brunson down low and allow the wings to stay out on their guys.  Simpson needs to play tough and physical, and if Michigan is going to win it is because he plays his ass off on the defensive end.

What will happen:

Jalen. Fucking. Brunson. Do I need to say it again?  He will be able to play bully ball and make the Michigan defense collapse.  Or they won’t collapse and Bridges and Spellman will still find ways to get open.  Do not get me wrong Michigan is an elite defense, Nova is just that fucking good.  I think Michigan will hang around for 30-35 minutes, but Villanova will overpower them in the end.  The other thing that scares me about Michigan is they are gonna need all the points they can get and they are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country.  I will lay the points with the Cats.

Pick: Villanova

ATS Pick: Villanova -6.5

O/U Pick: Over 144.5