Hello friends and welcome….just kidding Nantz won’t be
saying that for a few weeks. Nope for
the next two we got Nantz along side Grant Hill, whose Mom went to college and
was roommates with Hilary Clinton and Raft.
And anyone who complains about the first weekend being boring, punch
them square in the nose. We are set up
for one of the greatest second and third weekends in recent memory and oh yeah
it just so happens to coincide with Opening weekend in the MLB, NCAA hockey tourney and one of the
best golf tournaments of the year in the Dell Technologies Match play. But that isn’t why you’re here, so let’s talk
some hoops.
THURSDAY SLATE
Florida St vs Gonzaga
(-7.5) O/U: 146.5
This game makes me sad.
Coming into the tournament, I wanted to see both of these teams in
Minneapolis and it’s a damn shame they have to play this early, but as they say
to be the best you have to beat the best.
Personally, I was of the belief that Florida St. and Texas Tech were the
9th and 10th best teams in the nation coming into the
tourney behind the 1s and 2s, but now I think I may have been underselling them
both. This FSU team has some DUDES. They throw length and athleticism at you that
not many other teams in the nation can do.
They are a matchup nightmare for anyone they go up against, and the Zags
haven’t seen these types of athletes since December. *Stephen A. Smith voice* HOWEVA, this Zaga
team is really fucking good. Like historically
great. Prior to that St. Mary’s disaster
in the WCC title (I still think they took a dive to get 2 in), they were the second
most efficient offense since 02, only to the Wisco team that took down
undefeated Kentucky. So before you write
off the Zags for the conference they play in, just remember they won every game
in that conference by an average of damn near 30 points and they got some
ballers. 2 lottery picks in Rui
Hachimura and Brandon Clarke lead this team, only this Rui and Clarke don’t
need Sacagawea to guide them. Nope but
they do have an experienced PG in Josh Perkins guiding them who sometimes gets
careless with the ball, but this team will go how he does. I am fully confident Rui and Clarke will be
able to handle the big, athletic FSU front court, but will Perkins be able to
handle the constant pressure FSU will throw at him? If I was Florida State, I would throw a whole
lot of Terrance Mann at him to fluster him and allow Koumadje (whose first name
is literally Christ) and perhaps the most underrated player in the country in Mfiondu
Kabengale deal with the Zags’ 2-headed monster in the frontcourt. This game is a rematch of last year’s 75-60
FSU sweet 16 win, and I expect this one to be a lot more exciting than that. As I have said, I have been high on both of
these squads all year, but there is a reason I have the Zags going to the title
game in my bracket. I just think their
superior talent and shot making ability wins out, and when in doubt I will always
go with Mark Few over Leonard Hamilton…Zaga wins 72-68.
SU: Gonzaga
ATS: FSU +7.5
Under 146.5
Purdue vs Tennessee
(-1.5) O/U: 146.5
Remember how much I said I love the last two teams?? These
ones not so much. Purdue has done
nothing to impress me outside of Mackey Arena and Tennessee sometimes forgets
defense exists. Don’t get me wrong, they
are good teams and both of them have bona fide Wooden Award candidates, I just
won’t be sad to see one of their seasons end on Thursday night. What will be interesting about this one is
the contrasting styles. Purdue will
shoot 3s. A lot. And they can stroke it,
largely due to number 3, Carsen Edwards.
Legit, sometimes I forget this is Purdue and not Old Dominion’s new hit
single, One Man Band. Meanwhile, Tennessee loves to go inside with
Admiral Schofield and Grant Williams.
Side note on Grant Williams, you truly cannot appreciate how unfuckingbelievable
of a basketball player he is until you watch him play in person. I was only watching him on the defensive side
of the basketball and his movement and anticipation for what the offense will
do next is next level. That will be key
this game as Purdue does a fantastic job freeing up shooters with screens and
then peeling off to crash the glass. Williams
will be key in calling out screens for his teammates and closing out on
shooters. Same thing on offense, he is
so good at finding space for himself and others. He also has that straight up dog in him where
he refuses to be beat. Ultimately that
may be the difference in this game. I
think Purdue will be able to get theirs from deep, granted not as much as they
did against Villanova, but Tennessee will be able to match them in what I think
will just be a layup line on offense.
Look who Purdue lost against in B1G play: Minnesota, Maryland, Michigan,
Michigan State. What do all 4 of those
teams have in common? They have multiple
fucking brutes who will bully you down low on O if you give them a chance. Well less so with Mich, but they defend the 3
ball better than anyone else in the country soooo. While I do have my reservations that Rick
Barnes will inexplicably choke on the big stage again, I trust in Williams to
will the Vols to victory like he did against Iowa, and the Vols to be singing
Rocky Top all night long after pulling away in a great offensive game…Vols 81-71
SU: Tennessee
ATS: Vols -1.5
Over 146.5
Texas Tech vs
Michigan (-2) O/U: 126
I want to see 12 rounds of this game. Both teams are physical, tough, and will
defend the shit out of you. They will shake
you down, take your lunch money, and then shove you in a locker. If you have ever been in a rock fight, then
you know what will shake out over 40 minutes here in Anaheim. This is another game featuring two teams that
I have loved all year, well me and Michigan’s relationship, like any healthy marriage
has had some ups and downs (the 3 times I bet on them when they played Michigan
State), but overall, I love these teams.
One of the main reasons is the coaches.
This is about as good a coaching matchup as you can ask for. Chris Beard, the new kid on the block who put
the nail in the coffin on Kansas’ reign of terror on the Big 12 by routing them
in late February, and John Belein who has been a staple as one of the top
coaches in the game for years now. Beard
replaced Keenan Evans and Zhaire Smith and got better. That is in large part to the growing legend
of Jarrett Culver. An absolute monster on both ends of the floor and I think if
I got matched up against him I would just curl up in the fetal position and
cry. Look for Charles Matthews to be on
him which will be fun as hell. However,
this ain’t your older brother’s Belein team.
Trey Burke isn’t walking through that door. While they still usually have great inbound
plays and run beautiful sets, they do not have a killer. Zavier Simpson and Charles Matthews, for as
good as they are, tend to struggle offensively.
The closest thing they have is Jordan Swaggy Poole, who is a monster but
is somewhat neutralized by his ineptitude on the other side of the floor. And on the Texas Tech side, no big deal just
the most efficient defense in the country, ho hum. If you have not watched this Texas tech team
play, make sure you have a front row seat for this game. They play so hard it will make you never turn
on an NBA game again. They just throw
themselves at the ball handler and do not allow open shots. Against a Michigan team where the ball tends
to be sticky when things aren’t going their way, that could spell trouble. We just watched Texas Tech hold Buffalo, an
offense far superior to Michigan’s by this man’s estimation to 58 points (0.88
ppp). Michigan NEEDS to be hitting
contested shots, and they need to be hitting them early. If they do not start shooting well then I
think we may see a couple of their famous 3 minute droughts, only this Texas
Tech team will not let them back in it.
This is also a Texas Tech team who has been playing much better offense
than they were at the beginning of the last month. If Michigan starts hot, we will have a dandy,
but if not, I fear for the Wolverines’ health.
65-54 Texas Tech
SU: Texas Tech
ATS: Texas Tech +1.5
Under 126
Oregon vs Virginia
(-8.5) O/U 119.5
The classic, hottest team in the country running into a top
1 team in the country (yea I said it wanna fight about it?). An immovable force meets an unstoppable
object. And in this case that works. Both of these teams want to play at a snail
pace and defend and get offense from defense.
Virginia runs CTB (Coach Tony Bennett)’s patented pack line and Oregon
runs a weird positionless morphing zone with their multitude of athletic bigs just
rejecting dudes at the rim all day. I am
going to be honest, as a Virginia fan, this matchup scares me. I know we can shoot over them, I just would
not want to be anyone running into Oregon.
However, I want you to do the research for yourself. Outside of the Elite 8 game in which UVA
squandered a double digit lead in the 2nd half, look how they have
done against Cuse in the Tony era. Go
ahead check. Stop reading and check. The answer? Pretty fucking good. They love playing against a zone. And not all those teams had Ty Jerome to cut
up the middle or the number 1 3P% in the country. Or DeAndre Hunter, (the best NBA draft
prospect in this class) to score from legitimately anywhere). While Kenny Wooten scares the hell out of me
from Virginia’s perspective, UVA does not need to get to the rack to score. Plus speaking on that, I would not be
surprised to see CTB roll out a Jerome/Guy/Hunter/Key/Diakite lineup often to
try to make some of those bigs roam a little and get uncomfortable. However, CTB does have two shortcomings as a
man: His love of Kihei Clark and his refusal to play DeAndre Hunter when he has
2 fouls. This Oregon team has won 10 in
a row and looked damn good doing it.
What Dana Altman has done to turn that team around is nothing short of
excellent, but they have not seen Virginia.
Another cool storyline is that neutral fans I think somehow will hate
Payton Pritchard more than Kyle Guy which is always fun. Anyway you know which way I am going with
this, I don’t see Oregon getting to 50, Hoos defense is just too good, and
Oregon is not a great jump shooting team, it is just that plain and fucking
simple. UVA 66-47.
SU: UVA
ATS: UVA -8.5
Under 119.5
*Bonus pick* If you can get an Oregon 2H team total
especially if they are sitting around 30 at halftime, take it. This game has 2nd half Tony
(opponent under 20 points) written all over it.
Well there you have it, I gotta go play school for a little
so be on the lookout for Friday’s preview later today or tomorrow
